Bet Angel - Betfair Trading Software

A handful of questions about Augur

Hi guys, until recently I was a doubter of prediction markets as it seemed they were just betting operators trying to disguise themselves as financial products. Hearing Paul Sztorc, Robin Hanson and the Augur guys I have realized prediction markets can be very powerful and I want to learn more and share it with others.
I am James Canning, Webmaster of http://www.bitedge.co/ a leading source of information about bitcoin gambling and I am going to write one or two blog posts about bitcoin prediction markets. I hope you can answer a few questions to clarify things for me.
1. About predictions with scalar outcomes like how many Electoral College votes will Hillary win is it the case that there would/could be a prediction that pays 1/538 of $1.00c per vote won? So if she wins 0 votes its worth $0.00, if she wins 269 votes it pays out $0.50c if she wins 538 votes it pays out $1.00c and so on for every amount in between?
If that is how it would work and the market price for that prediction is $0.50c how would a new trader come along and bet that Hillary will win less than 269 votes? This trader does not hold the prediction to be able to sell it so is there a shorting mechanism or could/would there be an equal and opposite prediction available for shorters that pays out $0.00 if Hillary wins 538 votes, pays out $0.50c if Hillary wins 269 and pays out $1.00c if Hillary wins 0 votes and so on for every amount in between?
2. Do you imagine predictions being tradable outside Augar? I guess by the keys for those predictions being traded privately potentially at a different price than the price on Augar? If predictions could be traded in the dark, off market does that degrade the price signaling that is required for wisdom of the crowd accuracy?
Although someone who trades a prediction at a different to market price has an incentive to arbitrage that trade on the market he might have real life knowledge that the prediction will soon go to $1.00c or $0.00c and real life incentive to not let the market know that. In such a case he might trade the predictions off market in a way that would change the price if it were happening on market. In this case the market and the prediction does not gain from his knowledge right?
3. How do the predictions get their initial price? Does the creator set the initial price by setting a loss limit per outcome? Like if he sets a $6.00c loss limit if Hillary wins and a $4.00c loss if Hillary losses does that mean the prediction that Hillary will win’s initial price will be $0.60c?
4. Are betting exchanges prediction markets? I do understand the difference in trading mechanism, the concept of a prediction being trading between parties as different to parties matching each other’s bets and that the logarithmic market scoring rule will give Augur the effect of liquidity.
But isn’t the valuable part of a prediction market, the fact that the price implies a wisdom of the crowd probability, exactly replicated by a betting exchange?
If I go to Betfair and check the odds on Man U Vs Arsenal those odds are just as much a wisdom of the crowd probability with all the same incentives at play that would be for a prediction market right (except Betfair is centralized and non-anonymous)?
I get that Augur is decentralized and anonymous but that is just as much a case in favor of a decentralized anonymous betting exchange is it is in favor of Augur.
So what would be the advantages or disadvantages of a decentralized anonymous betting exchange compared to Augur? Particularly if there are any advantages or disadvantages to the accuracy of its price signal as a forecast.
5. I assume a lot of markets will be created automatically by bots and I assumed they would be voted on by bots as well. But then I gather what each voter has to vote on is random which would make bot voting more difficult so do you think people will do voting manually by looking stuff up on google?
6. If the current Augur design has major problems because etherium how easy or possible would it be to move it onto a bitcoin sidechain? Or what would be plan B?
7. The whitepaper talks about Augur run on bitcoin, is that out of date?
Thanks for any info you can give, I have had a few ahha moments with this and I think I will get a lot more involved.
submitted by yeh-nah-yeh to Augur [link] [comments]

Betfair Trading BOT - YouTube Creating your own Betfair trading bot - YouTube Bitcoin Trading Software - Bitcoin Robot [ BTC Robot ] How To Make Money Trading Horses On Betfair And Other Exchanges Betfair bots - Automating your betting & Betfair trading ...

Betfair Trading Software. Bet Angel is the premier software for trading on Betfair. Used by professionals all over the world, Bet Angel has been developed by traders who use it as their primary tool. Introduced in 2004, Bet Angel is constantly developed with more features and improved performance over any alternative software. Trading on Betfair . Learn how to trade on Betfair with the Bet ... 1 Trading Sheet. Old Result Listing System (8 adjustable listing places). Old Normal data listing (31 adjustable variables). Adjustable listing conditions and includes race indicators. Triggers for Back/Lay/Cancels for 1-6 runners; Global triggers: Cancel_All and Green_All. Auto clear status cells and data when it jumps to a new betfair market. Betfair auto trading bot, bitcoin cash deposit bittrex - work for apple from home uk. The bitcoin trading bot is available for download fx automation pro tools major operating systemscan be modified by the user. Één van BetAngel Professional's verschillende hoe word ik een rat marktplaats bevindt zich in de kans mika on seuraava paras investointi bitcoinin jalkeen weddenschappen gelijktijdig ... The Essential Betfair Toolkit. Compare Download Buy . Easy to use - Cost Effective - Essential Tools. If you want fast, easy to use and feature rich trading software - Bet Angel Trader is your essential trading toolkit. Bet Angel Trader packages a number of key trading tools in an easy to use and uncomplicated interface. This makes it ideal for people who want a quick and efficient but fully ... I was testing a new version of Bet Angel recently and was poking around in some early markets when I noticed the market kept reacting to my positions. I

[index] [51488] [34369] [41763] [26873] [29424] [241] [7946] [18613] [9249] [14744]

Betfair Trading BOT - YouTube

Random back or lay trading on Betfair by Adam Todd in 2008, founder of the first Betfair Trading software product BetTrader. Get BetTrader from https://racin... Bitcoin Exchange Bot **WARNING** - CLICK http://BitcoinExchangeRobot.com Now! as the price of the Bitcoin Exchange Bot is about to increase by at least $20... Betfair trading - Are you profitable or just being fooled by randomness? - Duration: 19:12. ... Vera Trading: Live Bitcoin BTCUSD Price Chart and Live Bitcoin Trading with Crypto Robot DeriBot ... Information on the site http://lions-trading.ru/ please contact us by e-mail [email protected] have a look and dont forget to check the undeniable proof of the Bitcoin Robot trading Live and making $386.18 profit completely on autopilot in front of your eyes! Click here to watch:

#